FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.53 – 64.06

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241.1 ±11

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 65.71Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 44.73Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 29.09Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 119.2 ±12.7

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 2.14Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 5.53Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 56.39Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 526, 2890, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 526, 2890, 11425

Auto

34.9 25%

Teleop

79.8 58%

Endgame

22.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2998, 3359, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2998, 3359, 404

Auto

22.6 35%

Teleop

33.7 52%

Endgame

7.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.5pts

Blue projected score64.1pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.5
Score range: 39–165
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 139.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241.1Season APEX119.2

34.9Auto22.6

79.8Teleop33.7

22.4Endgame7.9

59Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	38
teleop	29	36
endgame	72	18
foul	5	0
total	151	92

Result

Final score

151 – 92

Prediction correct · off by 19.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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