FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

213.04 – 108.15

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

271 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 543.3 ±9.9

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 44.99Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 61.21Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 106.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235 ±12.8

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 80.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 17.01Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 10.22Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 539, 1908, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 1908, 4099

Auto

50.1 25%

Teleop

118.8 58%

Endgame

35.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 122, 612, 9214

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 122, 612, 9214

Auto

15.9 15%

Teleop

52.2 50%

Endgame

36.1 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213pts

Blue projected score108.2pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.9
Score range: 83–238
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 443 vs event baseline 137.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

543.3Season APEX235

50.1Auto15.9

118.8Teleop52.2

35Endgame36.1

94Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	37
teleop	138	82
endgame	73	53
foul	0	0
total	271	172

Result

Final score

271 – 172

Prediction correct · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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