FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

192.89 – 138.67

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

211 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.1 ±10.5

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 24.84Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 68.27Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 99.78Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.8 ±12.2

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 64.6Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 72.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 1.13Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9003, 1895, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.9 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 1895, 422

Auto

23.8 13%

Teleop

107.6 58%

Endgame

55.1 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 2028, 6326

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 2028, 6326

Auto

15.3 12%

Teleop

73.2 56%

Endgame

43.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score192.9pts

Blue projected score138.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.2
Score range: 114–218
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 136.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.1Season APEX258.8

23.8Auto15.3

107.6Teleop73.2

55.1Endgame43

62Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	17
teleop	126	71
endgame	37	60
foul	5	0
total	211	148

Result

Final score

211 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 13.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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