FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

81.69 – 129.59

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

90 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.8 ±12.2

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 63.03Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 15.72Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 2.94Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 322.1 ±11

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 25.79Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 52.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 51.54Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1086, 11252, 2998

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1086, 11252, 2998

Auto

23.5 28%

Teleop

37.9 46%

Endgame

21.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 11415, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 11415, 404

Auto

28.9 22%

Teleop

72.3 56%

Endgame

27.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.7pts

Blue projected score129.6pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.9
Score range: 57–155
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.8Season APEX322.1

23.5Auto28.9

37.9Teleop72.3

21.7Endgame27.7

79Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	45
teleop	55	97
endgame	19	35
foul	0	0
total	90	177

Result

Final score

90 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 27.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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