FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.5 – 299.39

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 105.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.2 ±11.6

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 124.99Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 32.13Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 64.38Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 488.2 ±11.2

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 85.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 81.88Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 131.86Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 122, 2998, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 122, 2998, 2363

Auto

41.7 19%

Teleop

113.6 53%

Endgame

60.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2028, 1086, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

299.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 1086, 422

Auto

47.4 16%

Teleop

195.3 66%

Endgame

53.2 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.05 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score221.5pts

Blue projected score299.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -77.9
Score range: 193–328
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 310 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.2Season APEX488.2

41.7Auto47.4

113.6Teleop195.3

60.8Endgame53.2

32Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	11
teleop	62	96
endgame	38	65
foul	5	5
total	133	177

Result

Final score

133 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 105.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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