FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.89 – 287.64

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.1 ±12.1

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 45.99Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 8.25Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 42.65Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.5 ±9.8

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 90.51Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 111.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 85.37Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 539, 611, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 611, 1599

Auto

27.2 28%

Teleop

39.2 41%

Endgame

29.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10224, 4099, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

287.6 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10224, 4099, 122

Auto

52.5 19%

Teleop

145.1 52%

Endgame

83.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.72 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.9pts

Blue projected score287.6pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -190.7
Score range: 73–312
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 356 vs event baseline 135.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.1Season APEX549.5

27.2Auto52.5

39.2Teleop145.1

29.2Endgame83.6

105Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	32
teleop	39	149
endgame	39	61
foul	0	15
total	99	257

Result

Final score

99 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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