FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.58 – 114.58

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164 ±12.8

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 23.85Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 71.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 18.45Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 223.3 ±11

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 64.23Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 52.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -2.31Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 612, 620, 1793

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 620, 1793

Auto

17.7 16%

Teleop

53.8 48%

Endgame

39.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1895, 2068, 6326

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1895, 2068, 6326

Auto

22.2 20%

Teleop

51.3 47%

Endgame

34.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score114.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1
Score range: 89–140
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 200 vs event baseline 136.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164Season APEX223.3

17.7Auto22.2

53.8Teleop51.3

39.8Endgame34.8

51Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	23
teleop	35	84
endgame	1	37
foul	0	0
total	56	144

Result

Final score

56 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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