FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.94 – 41.68

84%16%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.8 ±12.2

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 42.46Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 68.1Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 65.38Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 161.6 ±13.3

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 4.16Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 13.5Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 24.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2890, 2028, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2890, 2028, 2363

Auto

35.5 21%

Teleop

81.8 47%

Endgame

55.3 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3359, 9403, 9003

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3359, 9403, 9003

Auto

14.4 38%

Teleop

10.0 27%

Endgame

13.3 35%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.38 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score175.9pts

Blue projected score41.7pts

Red win probability84%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 134.3
Score range: 17–201
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 234 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.8Season APEX161.6

35.5Auto14.4

81.8Teleop10

55.3Endgame13.3

66Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	18
teleop	122	14
endgame	55	0
foul	5	5
total	197	37

Result

Final score

197 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 12.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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