FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.69 – 176.29

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±11

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -4.91Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 66.24Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 46.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.1 ±11

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 45.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 85.33Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 45.5Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2998, 620, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2998, 620, 2068

Auto

20.9 20%

Teleop

50.7 48%

Endgame

33.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 122, 539

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 122, 539

Auto

37.0 22%

Teleop

89.4 53%

Endgame

43.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score107.7pts

Blue projected score176.3pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.6
Score range: 83–201
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 330 vs event baseline 136.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.7Season APEX400.1

20.9Auto37

50.7Teleop89.4

33.6Endgame43.3

111Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	24
teleop	72	109
endgame	32	58
foul	5	0
total	139	191

Result

Final score

139 – 191

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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