FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.02 – 77.46

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.9 ±11.7

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 23.4Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 28.68Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 65.94Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.6 ±11.7

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 74.59Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX -8.71Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 11.58Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1793, 11425, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1793, 11425, 1895

Auto

27.3 23%

Teleop

63.3 54%

Endgame

27.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1908, 6326, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1908, 6326, 11252

Auto

15.0 21%

Teleop

26.3 37%

Endgame

29.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118pts

Blue projected score77.5pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.6
Score range: 52–143
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 138.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.9Season APEX295.6

27.3Auto15

63.3Teleop26.3

27.7Endgame29.7

62Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	20
teleop	36	58
endgame	22	13
foul	10	0
total	98	91

Result

Final score

98 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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