FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

105.44 – 172.15

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

188 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 58.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 233.5 ±13.3

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 55.62Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -6Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 55.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 243.2 ±12.2

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 44.18Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 96.24Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 31.73Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 526, 3359, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 526, 3359, 2028

Auto

12.7 12%

Teleop

72.5 67%

Endgame

23.0 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1599, 10224, 612

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1599, 10224, 612

Auto

23.7 14%

Teleop

83.2 49%

Endgame

62.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score105.4pts

Blue projected score172.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -66.7
Score range: 80–197
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 137.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

233.5Season APEX243.2

12.7Auto23.7

72.5Teleop83.2

23Endgame62.3

113Consistency118

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	23
teleop	125	57
endgame	20	52
foul	15	5
total	188	137

Result

Final score

188 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 58.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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