FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.35 – 133.64

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

209 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.4 ±11.7

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 50.84Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 106.86Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 8.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 154.5 ±12.7

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 53.31Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 9.66Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 70.67Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8230, 4099, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 4099, 9403

Auto

34.8 20%

Teleop

87.9 51%

Endgame

48.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 404, 4286, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 404, 4286, 2363

Auto

29.9 24%

Teleop

71.0 56%

Endgame

26.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.4pts

Blue projected score133.6pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.7
Score range: 109–191
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 136.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.4Season APEX154.5

34.8Auto29.9

87.9Teleop71

48.3Endgame26.1

71Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	13
teleop	104	48
endgame	38	42
foul	15	0
total	209	103

Result

Final score

209 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 36.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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