FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.98 – 128.91

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.7 ±11.6

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 20.19Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 65.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 14.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 357.7 ±11.2

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX -2.26Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 99.25Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 31.92Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9003, 1086, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

101 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 1086, 611

Auto

21.1 22%

Teleop

56.7 60%

Endgame

17.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9214, 422, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9214, 422, 2890

Auto

23.4 18%

Teleop

60.3 47%

Endgame

44.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101pts

Blue projected score128.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -27.9
Score range: 77–153
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 315 vs event baseline 136.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.7Season APEX357.7

21.1Auto23.4

56.7Teleop60.3

17.4Endgame44.3

14Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	27
teleop	40	153
endgame	40	33
foul	0	5
total	97	218

Result

Final score

97 – 218

Prediction correct · off by 46.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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