FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.95 – 157.47

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 217.1 ±12.2

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 5.6Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 94.84Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 38.51Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 214 ±11

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 74.88Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 50.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 32.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6326, 122, 1793

/ 100 compat

Projected

139 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 122, 1793

Auto

27.3 21%

Teleop

55.8 43%

Endgame

46.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 539, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 539, 11425

Auto

44.9 29%

Teleop

83.6 53%

Endgame

28.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139pts

Blue projected score157.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.5
Score range: 114–182
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 180 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

217.1Season APEX214

27.3Auto44.9

55.8Teleop83.6

46.3Endgame28.7

56Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	24
teleop	21	67
endgame	25	16
foul	0	15
total	58	122

Result

Final score

58 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 58.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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