FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

95.08 – 151.63

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.1 ±12.2

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 16.88Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 42.15Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 36.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±11

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 20.13Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 73.49Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 58.01Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 612, 11425, 9003

/ 100 compat

Projected

95.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 11425, 9003

Auto

23.8 27%

Teleop

34.3 39%

Endgame

30.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 10224, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 10224, 620

Auto

23.9 16%

Teleop

70.1 47%

Endgame

54.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score95.1pts

Blue projected score151.6pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.5
Score range: 66–181
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.1Season APEX268.8

23.8Auto23.9

34.3Teleop70.1

30.3Endgame54.1

51Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	23
teleop	43	69
endgame	5	52
foul	0	0
total	73	144

Result

Final score

73 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 14.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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