FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

126.81 – 246.63

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 256.3 ±12.8

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 59.64Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 64.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 2.26Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.4 ±11.1

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 64.08Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 121.06Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 61.49Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2028, 1895, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 1895, 9403

Auto

17.0 14%

Teleop

60.2 48%

Endgame

47.6 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 404, 4099, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

246.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 404, 4099, 1599

Auto

45.1 18%

Teleop

138.8 56%

Endgame

63.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.03 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.8pts

Blue projected score246.6pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.8
Score range: 102–272
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

256.3Season APEX395.4

17Auto45.1

60.2Teleop138.8

47.6Endgame63.7

94Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	59
teleop	58	65
endgame	48	25
foul	0	0
total	126	149

Result

Final score

126 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 49.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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