FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

124.22 – 121.28

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

111 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.2 ±11.7

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 69.24Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 2.25Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 52.73Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.9 ±12.8

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 41.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 53.15Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 27.01Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1086, 9214, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

124.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1086, 9214, 11415

Auto

21.8 19%

Teleop

54.2 46%

Endgame

40.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2890, 612, 4286

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2890, 612, 4286

Auto

25.9 22%

Teleop

49.6 42%

Endgame

41.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score124.2pts

Blue projected score121.3pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.9
Score range: 96–149
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 126 vs event baseline 140.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.2Season APEX153.9

21.8Auto25.9

54.2Teleop49.6

40.9Endgame41.6

114Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	7
teleop	72	0
endgame	14	8
foul	0	0
total	111	15

Result

Final score

111 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 59.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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