FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

3.47 – 190.45

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 99 ±13.3

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 2.48Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -9.13Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 10.12Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 196.6 ±12.1

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 54.54Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 76.74Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 59.17Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11252, 3359, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

3.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 3359, 611

Auto

10.8 100%

Teleop

1.3 14%

Endgame

-2.8 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8230, 2363, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 2363, 526

Auto

22.5 12%

Teleop

110.6 58%

Endgame

59.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score3.5pts

Blue projected score190.5pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -187
Score range: -23–216
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 172 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

99Season APEX196.6

10.8Auto22.5

1.3Teleop110.6

-2.8Endgame59.2

93Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	16	94
endgame	5	16
foul	0	0
total	40	132

Result

Final score

40 – 132

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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