Qualification · Qualification 26
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
137.7 – 162.62
42%58%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
128 – 198
Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 416.5 ±10.5
Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 68.62Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 14.04Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 55.04Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.3 ±10.5
Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 87.43Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 89.86Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -14.67Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1908, 9003, 2068
63
/ 100 compatProjected
137.7 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1908, 9003, 2068
Auto
24.7 18%
Teleop
83.8 61%
Endgame
30.0 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10224, 422, 2998
71
/ 100 compatProjected
162.6 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 10224, 422, 2998
Auto
18.1 12%
Teleop
75.0 49%
Endgame
61.4 40%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 57%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.46 · Blue 1.68
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score137.7pts
Blue projected score162.6pts
Red win probability42%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 57%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -24.9
- Score range
- 113–188
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
416.5Season APEX384.3
24.7Auto18.1
83.8Teleop75
30Endgame61.4
96Consistency159
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 14 | 18 |
| teleop | 69 | 124 |
| endgame | 20 | 56 |
| foul | 25 | 0 |
| total | 128 | 198 |
Result
Final score
128 – 198
Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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