FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

141.3 – 97.36

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

106 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 258.7 ±12.2

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 47.27Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 76.24Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 17.79Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.9 ±12.2

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 17.94Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 7.64Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 71.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 8230, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 8230, 11252

Auto

8.0 6%

Teleop

81.9 58%

Endgame

50.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 9214, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 9214, 1895

Auto

11.9 13%

Teleop

48.4 52%

Endgame

32.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.3pts

Blue projected score97.4pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.9
Score range: 71–167
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

258.7Season APEX165.9

8Auto11.9

81.9Teleop48.4

50.6Endgame32.2

89Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	20
teleop	45	29
endgame	31	27
foul	0	0
total	106	76

Result

Final score

106 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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