FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

243.99 – 186.95

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

229 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 465.5 ±10.5

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 93.94Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 70.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 79.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.4 ±9.8

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 91.84Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 33.52Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 61.59Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2363, 122, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

244 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 122, 1908

Auto

46.3 19%

Teleop

127.8 54%

Endgame

63.9 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 2890, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

187 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 2890, 620

Auto

52.9 27%

Teleop

94.0 49%

Endgame

46.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score244pts

Blue projected score187pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57
Score range: 162–269
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 490 vs event baseline 140.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

465.5Season APEX454.4

46.3Auto52.9

127.8Teleop94

63.9Endgame46.7

54Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	57
teleop	122	117
endgame	67	82
foul	5	5
total	229	261

Result

Final score

229 – 261

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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