FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.79 – 110.4

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

159 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235 ±11.6

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 11.32Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 46.54Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 78.93Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.7 ±11.2

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 75.02Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 53.89Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -18.51Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6326, 1599, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 1599, 10224

Auto

27.2 20%

Teleop

69.5 52%

Endgame

37.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 2068, 3359

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2068, 3359

Auto

12.5 12%

Teleop

43.8 41%

Endgame

51.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.8pts

Blue projected score110.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 85–162
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 140.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235Season APEX353.7

27.2Auto12.5

69.5Teleop43.8

37.7Endgame51.8

143Consistency173

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	38
teleop	43	105
endgame	77	19
foul	20	0
total	159	162

Result

Final score

159 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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