FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

195 – 53.68

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 378.5 ±11.1

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 13.89Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 63.53Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 117.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 109.1 ±13.3

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 5.08Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 37.56Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 11.04Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6326, 526, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

195 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 526, 4099

Auto

41.7 22%

Teleop

102.1 54%

Endgame

46.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9214, 539, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9214, 539, 11252

Auto

18.6 34%

Teleop

18.2 34%

Endgame

17.5 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score195pts

Blue projected score53.7pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 141.3
Score range: 25–224
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 193 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

378.5Season APEX109.1

41.7Auto18.6

102.1Teleop18.2

46.7Endgame17.5

69Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	12
teleop	70	18
endgame	27	23
foul	0	5
total	135	58

Result

Final score

135 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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