FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.18 – 102.63

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.6 ±12.4

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 59.38Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 33.23Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 19.57Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 115.5 ±12.1

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 87.9Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -3.3Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 18.03Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1908, 612, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1908, 612, 2028

Auto

-0.7 0%

Teleop

67.2 63%

Endgame

40.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8230, 2998, 539

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 2998, 539

Auto

20.8 20%

Teleop

71.4 70%

Endgame

9.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.63 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.2pts

Blue projected score102.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.6
Score range: 78–137
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 294 vs event baseline 138.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.6Season APEX115.5

-0.7Auto20.8

67.2Teleop71.4

40.9Endgame9.6

72Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	23
teleop	111	37
endgame	52	39
foul	5	0
total	195	99

Result

Final score

195 – 99

Prediction correct · off by 43.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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