FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.06 – 42.57

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 200 ±12.2

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 46.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 36.55Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX -1.3Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.2 ±12.8

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 45.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 8.44Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX -11.24Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 1599, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 1599, 9403

Auto

33.4 39%

Teleop

47.3 55%

Endgame

5.4 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 9214, 3359

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 9214, 3359

Auto

19.8 54%

Teleop

15.7 43%

Endgame

1.1 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.89 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.1pts

Blue projected score42.6pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.5
Score range: 18–107
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

200Season APEX126.2

33.4Auto19.8

47.3Teleop15.7

5.4Endgame1.1

184Consistency154

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	22
teleop	74	8
endgame	57	7
foul	0	0
total	152	37

Result

Final score

152 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 37.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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