FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

143.9 – 122.83

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

179 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.5 ±11.1

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 8.6Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 56.1Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 79.2Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291.3 ±12.2

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 55.58Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 47.11Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 20.14Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6326, 404, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6326, 404, 422

Auto

32.9 24%

Teleop

59.3 42%

Endgame

47.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 526, 11415, 1793

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 526, 11415, 1793

Auto

14.3 11%

Teleop

96.3 76%

Endgame

15.7 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143.9pts

Blue projected score122.8pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21.1
Score range: 98–169
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 342 vs event baseline 138.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.5Season APEX291.3

32.9Auto14.3

59.3Teleop96.3

47.5Endgame15.7

103Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	11
teleop	111	82
endgame	47	70
foul	5	0
total	179	163

Result

Final score

179 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 37.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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