FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

100.66 – 204.94

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318 ±11

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 65.37Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 8.22Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 27.07Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.6 ±10.4

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 73.51Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 77.89Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 53.54Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10224, 9003, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10224, 9003, 2890

Auto

24.3 23%

Teleop

35.7 34%

Endgame

43.7 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1895, 1086, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1895, 1086, 122

Auto

22.7 11%

Teleop

118.4 58%

Endgame

62.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.7pts

Blue projected score204.9pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104.3
Score range: 77–229
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 470 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318Season APEX384.6

24.3Auto22.7

35.7Teleop118.4

43.7Endgame62.2

88Consistency33

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	59
teleop	86	148
endgame	57	59
foul	5	15
total	189	281

Result

Final score

189 – 281

Prediction correct · off by 82.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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