FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.82 – 115.3

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

184 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.2 ±11

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 55.95Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 77.03Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 73.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.8 ±11.7

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 62.94Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 59.02Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX -6.66Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 404, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 404, 10224

Auto

25.5 12%

Teleop

129.5 63%

Endgame

50.3 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 2363, 612

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2363, 612

Auto

30.5 27%

Teleop

51.3 45%

Endgame

32.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.8pts

Blue projected score115.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.5
Score range: 92–230
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 454 vs event baseline 126.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.2Season APEX352.8

25.5Auto30.5

129.5Teleop51.3

50.3Endgame32.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	14
teleop	105	139
endgame	46	102
foul	0	15
total	184	270

Result

Final score

184 – 270

Prediction missed · off by 88.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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