FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.42 – 137.69

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 447.3 ±10.5

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 57.8Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 11.93Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 36.69Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±12.2

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 20.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 36.15Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 81.46Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 9003, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 9003, 1895

Auto

25.2 23%

Teleop

64.5 60%

Endgame

18.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 1793, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.7 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 1793, 1086

Auto

18.3 14%

Teleop

87.0 64%

Endgame

29.9 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score137.7pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.3
Score range: 84–160
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 122.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

447.3Season APEX205

25.2Auto18.3

64.5Teleop87

18.4Endgame29.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	42
teleop	98	97
endgame	71	1
foul	0	0
total	199	140

Result

Final score

199 – 140

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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