FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.87 – 165.58

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.7 ±12.2

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -2.52Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 10.66Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 47.73Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.6 ±11.7

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 38.51Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 50.12Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 76.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4286, 6326, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4286, 6326, 11425

Auto

31.5 56%

Teleop

20.2 36%

Endgame

4.3 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2890, 11252, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.6 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2890, 11252, 122

Auto

35.9 22%

Teleop

90.1 55%

Endgame

37.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.84 · Blue 2.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.9pts

Blue projected score165.6pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.7
Score range: 33–189
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 160 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.7Season APEX281.6

31.5Auto35.9

20.2Teleop90.1

4.3Endgame37.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	29
teleop	15	22
endgame	12	49
foul	10	0
total	60	100

Result

Final score

60 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 34.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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