FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

92.11 – 107.82

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

200 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 105 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.7 ±9.8

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 12.81Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 26.05Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 53.25Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.3 ±11.1

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 53.25Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 35.48Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 19.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 620, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 620, 1908

Auto

15.0 16%

Teleop

43.6 48%

Endgame

32.9 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1599, 422, 2363

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1599, 422, 2363

Auto

13.4 13%

Teleop

52.1 50%

Endgame

39.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.1pts

Blue projected score107.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -15.7
Score range: 71–129
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.7Season APEX375.3

15Auto13.4

43.6Teleop52.1

32.9Endgame39.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	52
teleop	111	98
endgame	58	60
foul	0	0
total	200	210

Result

Final score

200 – 210

Prediction correct · off by 105 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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