FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

117.28 – 33.17

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

132 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.6 ±11.7

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 39.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 10.85Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 66.73Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 83.2 ±13.3

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 2.51Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -6.12Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 36.78Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2068, 1793, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 1793, 2890

Auto

30.3 26%

Teleop

60.6 52%

Endgame

25.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3359, 4286, 8230

/ 100 compat

Projected

33.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3359, 4286, 8230

Auto

12.4 40%

Teleop

15.9 51%

Endgame

2.6 8%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.1 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score117.3pts

Blue projected score33.2pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.1
Score range: 4–146
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 162.1.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.6Season APEX83.2

30.3Auto12.4

60.6Teleop15.9

25Endgame2.6

110Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	8
teleop	70	15
endgame	28	14
foul	0	0
total	132	37

Result

Final score

132 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 9.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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