FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.23 – 281.48

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

238 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.7 ±9.9

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 116.48Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 13.24Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 83.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 129.28Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 29.64Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 122.56Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 6326, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 6326, 1908

Auto

41.0 20%

Teleop

118.1 57%

Endgame

48.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 2998, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

281.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2998, 122

Auto

58.6 21%

Teleop

156.5 57%

Endgame

59.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.2pts

Blue projected score281.5pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.3
Score range: 184–310
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 604 vs event baseline 160.2.

← Previous

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.7Season APEX413.4

41Auto58.6

118.1Teleop156.5

48Endgame59.1

52Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	79
teleop	104	192
endgame	90	95
foul	5	0
total	238	366

Result

Final score

238 – 366

Prediction correct · off by 54.6 pts

Match videos

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