FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.08 – 279.61

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

288 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.7 ±9.9

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 113.01Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 9.93Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 80.14Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 128.53Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 28.95Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 122.13Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 6326, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 6326, 1908

Auto

39.2 20%

Teleop

109.8 56%

Endgame

47.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 2998, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

279.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2998, 122

Auto

55.1 20%

Teleop

158.1 58%

Endgame

58.3 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.1pts

Blue projected score279.6pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -76.5
Score range: 174–309
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 590 vs event baseline 158.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.7Season APEX413.4

39.2Auto55.1

109.8Teleop158.1

47.8Endgame58.3

62Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	91
teleop	178	145
endgame	49	66
foul	5	0
total	288	302

Result

Final score

288 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 pts

Match videos

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