FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.71 – 175.66

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

257 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±11.2

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 120.57Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -5.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 111.59Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±11

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 73.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 43.06Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 59.51Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 6802, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 6802, 1262

Auto

37.0 16%

Teleop

131.5 57%

Endgame

60.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 1885, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 1885, 5804

Auto

28.9 17%

Teleop

112.5 66%

Endgame

28.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.7pts

Blue projected score175.7pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.1
Score range: 141–262
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 516 vs event baseline 196.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.9Season APEX271.5

37Auto28.9

131.5Teleop112.5

60.8Endgame28.5

66Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	69
teleop	140	136
endgame	78	44
foul	5	10
total	257	259

Result

Final score

257 – 259

Prediction missed · off by 56.8 pts

Match videos

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