FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

229.3 – 264.07

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

273 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 111.06Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 80.52Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 37.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575 ±9.8

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 143.81Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 41.66Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 78.6Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 540, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

229.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 540, 3258

Auto

40.1 19%

Teleop

131.7 61%

Endgame

42.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 10004, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 10004, 346

Auto

35.4 14%

Teleop

163.9 63%

Endgame

60.0 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score229.3pts

Blue projected score264.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.8
Score range: 194–299
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 581 vs event baseline 195.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.2Season APEX575

40.1Auto35.4

131.7Teleop163.9

42.5Endgame60

83Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	34
teleop	166	163
endgame	67	91
foul	0	20
total	273	308

Result

Final score

273 – 308

Prediction correct · off by 43.8 pts

Match videos

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