FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

385.71 – 224.73

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

412 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 166.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 8.55Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 210.69Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±11.2

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 119.82Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -6.03Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 110.94Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 3361, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

385.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 3361, 2106

Auto

83.5 22%

Teleop

226.1 60%

Endgame

69.7 18%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 619, 6802, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 6802, 1262

Auto

34.8 15%

Teleop

133.0 58%

Endgame

60.1 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.39 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score385.7pts

Blue projected score224.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161
Score range: 190–421
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 656 vs event baseline 193.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601Season APEX345.9

83.5Auto34.8

226.1Teleop133

69.7Endgame60.1

9Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	47
teleop	238	127
endgame	117	70
foul	0	0
total	412	244

Result

Final score

412 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 22.8 pts

Match videos

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