FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.06 – 180.51

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±13.3

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 38.61Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 59.65Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 82.8Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±11

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 74.44Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 44.92Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 61.15Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5830, 10257, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 10257, 4456

Auto

27.7 16%

Teleop

102.6 58%

Endgame

45.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 1885, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 1885, 5804

Auto

29.2 17%

Teleop

115.9 66%

Endgame

30.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.1pts

Blue projected score180.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.6
Score range: 146–216
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 194.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.2Season APEX271.5

27.7Auto29.2

102.6Teleop115.9

45.8Endgame30.6

50Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	27
teleop	63	96
endgame	44	24
foul	0	10
total	133	157

Result

Final score

133 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 pts

Match videos

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