FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

148.41 – 191.18

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

145 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.5 ±11

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 87.92Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 31.87Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 28.62Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±12.1

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 70.19Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 36.82Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 84.17Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 977, 3939, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 3939, 5724

Auto

22.1 15%

Teleop

78.1 54%

Endgame

45.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 3072, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 3072, 5115

Auto

27.2 15%

Teleop

101.9 56%

Endgame

53.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.4pts

Blue projected score191.2pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.8
Score range: 113–226
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 332 vs event baseline 194.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.5Season APEX257.3

22.1Auto27.2

78.1Teleop101.9

45.3Endgame53.2

47Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	29
teleop	103	97
endgame	11	26
foul	0	35
total	145	187

Result

Final score

145 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 3.8 pts

Match videos

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