FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

262.72 – 163.34

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 49 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575 ±9.8

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 142.97Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 41.37Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 78.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±11

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 69.04Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 39.06Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 55.24Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 10004, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

262.7 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 10004, 346

Auto

34.1 13%

Teleop

165.7 64%

Endgame

57.8 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 1885, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 1885, 5804

Auto

24.1 15%

Teleop

106.8 68%

Endgame

27.2 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.26 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score262.7pts

Blue projected score163.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 99.4
Score range: 128–298
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 524 vs event baseline 193.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575Season APEX271.5

34.1Auto24.1

165.7Teleop106.8

57.8Endgame27.2

24Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	50
teleop	159	152
endgame	70	42
foul	5	5
total	275	249

Result

Final score

275 – 249

Prediction correct · off by 49 pts

Match videos

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