FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.38 – 187.26

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

238 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 110.99Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 79.23Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 37.16Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 244.2 ±13.3

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 40.83Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 61.89Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4456Mech Cadets

Season APEX 100.6Event APEX 84.54Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 401, 540, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 540, 3258

Auto

39.2 18%

Teleop

128.4 58%

Endgame

52.6 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5830, 10257, 4456

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 10257, 4456

Auto

29.4 16%

Teleop

109.8 61%

Endgame

40.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.4pts

Blue projected score187.3pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.1
Score range: 152–262
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 401 vs event baseline 193.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.2Season APEX244.2

39.2Auto29.4

128.4Teleop109.8

52.6Endgame40.6

75Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	24
teleop	141	78
endgame	8	61
foul	45	0
total	238	163

Result

Final score

238 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 17.4 pts

Match videos

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