FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

215.28 – 202.66

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

258 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.9 ±11.2

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 115.76Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -8.74Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 108.26Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±12.1

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 74.48Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 40Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 88.18Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 6802, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 6802, 1262

Auto

33.8 15%

Teleop

127.9 59%

Endgame

56.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 3072, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

202.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 3072, 5115

Auto

28.4 15%

Teleop

107.9 56%

Endgame

55.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score215.3pts

Blue projected score202.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.6
Score range: 168–250
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 193.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.9Season APEX257.3

33.8Auto28.4

127.9Teleop107.9

56.6Endgame55.2

61Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	26
teleop	149	82
endgame	68	48
foul	0	0
total	258	156

Result

Final score

258 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 44.7 pts

Match videos

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