FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.93 – 163.19

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

491 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 98.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 157.12Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 1.22Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 201.59Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 269.5 ±11

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 93.77Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 35.42Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 34Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 3361, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 3361, 2106

Auto

82.3 23%

Teleop

211.2 59%

Endgame

62.2 17%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 977, 3939, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 3939, 5724

Auto

21.8 14%

Teleop

86.9 54%

Endgame

51.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score359.9pts

Blue projected score163.2pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 196.7
Score range: 129–394
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 588 vs event baseline 191.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601Season APEX269.5

82.3Auto21.8

211.2Teleop86.9

62.2Endgame51.1

51Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	26
teleop	286	45
endgame	93	21
foul	20	5
total	491	97

Result

Final score

491 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 98.6 pts

Match videos

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