FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

278.75 – 233.22

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

283 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575 ±9.8

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 148.93Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 46.47Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 83.35Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 82.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 110.71Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 40.2Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 10004, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

278.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 10004, 346

Auto

41.0 15%

Teleop

160.0 59%

Endgame

70.7 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 401, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 401, 3258

Auto

41.4 19%

Teleop

134.3 60%

Endgame

46.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score278.8pts

Blue projected score233.2pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.5
Score range: 197–315
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 627 vs event baseline 199.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575Season APEX485.2

41Auto41.4

160Teleop134.3

70.7Endgame46.3

26Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	53
teleop	152	190
endgame	44	96
foul	15	5
total	283	344

Result

Final score

283 – 344

Prediction missed · off by 57.5 pts

Match videos

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