FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

234.71 – 187.56

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 82.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 111.15Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 40.75Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 271.5 ±11

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 76.48Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 47.45Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 63.63Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 401, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 401, 3258

Auto

38.9 17%

Teleop

138.6 62%

Endgame

46.5 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 1885, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3136, 1885, 5804

Auto

34.1 19%

Teleop

116.6 64%

Endgame

30.4 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score234.7pts

Blue projected score187.6pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 152–271
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 199.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.2Season APEX271.5

38.9Auto34.1

138.6Teleop116.6

46.5Endgame30.4

95Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	52
teleop	101	64
endgame	46	48
foul	15	10
total	222	174

Result

Final score

222 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 13.1 pts

Match videos

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