FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

388.56 – 271.27

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

443 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601 ±9.3

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 167.57Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 9.17Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 211.82Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575 ±9.8

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 146.66Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 43.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 80.75Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 3361, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

388.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 3361, 2106

Auto

78.9 21%

Teleop

227.7 59%

Endgame

76.5 20%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 10004, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

271.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 10004, 346

Auto

34.7 13%

Teleop

164.0 62%

Endgame

65.2 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.25 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score388.6pts

Blue projected score271.3pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.3
Score range: 235–425
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 770 vs event baseline 197.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601Season APEX575

78.9Auto34.7

227.7Teleop164

76.5Endgame65.2

11Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	95	82
teleop	242	133
endgame	106	107
foul	0	5
total	443	327

Result

Final score

443 – 327

Prediction correct · off by 55.1 pts

Match videos

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