FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

235.19 – 188.43

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

235 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 485.2 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 82.58Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 112.39Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 40.22Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.3 ±12.1

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 68.71Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 36.42Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 83.3Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 540, 401, 3258

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 401, 3258

Auto

39.7 18%

Teleop

137.1 62%

Endgame

46.1 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 3072, 5115

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 3072, 5115

Auto

27.2 15%

Teleop

100.9 57%

Endgame

47.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score235.2pts

Blue projected score188.4pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.8
Score range: 152–271
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 197.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

485.2Season APEX257.3

39.7Auto27.2

137.1Teleop100.9

46.1Endgame47.6

87Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	39
teleop	146	30
endgame	52	9
foul	0	5
total	235	83

Result

Final score

235 – 83

Prediction correct · off by 52.8 pts

Match videos

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