FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

240.13 – 85.89

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 504.6 ±9.9

5115Knight Riders

Season APEX 93.8Event APEX 74.56Rank 9Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 38.15Rank 12Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 127.42Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186.1 ±12.2

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 38.15Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 5.01Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 42.73Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5115, 619, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5115, 619, 401

Auto

37.8 16%

Teleop

133.1 56%

Endgame

67.4 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3361, 9003, 9709

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3361, 9003, 9709

Auto

22.1 26%

Teleop

47.1 55%

Endgame

15.9 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.54 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score240.1pts

Blue projected score85.9pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 154.2
Score range: 55–271
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 447 vs event baseline 171.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

504.6Season APEX186.1

37.8Auto22.1

133.1Teleop47.1

67.4Endgame15.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	11
teleop	217	51
endgame	93	36
foul	5	0
total	349	98

Result

Final score

349 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 60.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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