FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.85 – 193.09

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

294 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 132.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 463 ±11.2

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 59.71Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 22Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 55.14Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 631.7 ±9.3

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 64.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 51.69Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 77.24Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11415, 1522, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 1522, 422

Auto

29.4 22%

Teleop

77.4 58%

Endgame

25.7 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 3136, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 3136, 2106

Auto

29.9 16%

Teleop

118.9 62%

Endgame

42.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.9pts

Blue projected score193.1pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -56.2
Score range: 108–222
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 595 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

463Season APEX631.7

29.4Auto29.9

77.4Teleop118.9

25.7Endgame42.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	34
teleop	171	196
endgame	56	61
foul	15	10
total	294	301

Result

Final score

294 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 132.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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