FCH District Blacksburg VA Event presented by Ball

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

91.38 – 85.03

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.1 ±17.5

5830LIFE Engineering

Season APEX 64.8Event APEX 34.46Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11443Ferrum Nexus

Season APEX 68.8Event APEX 31.29Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

10370Squatch Watch

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 25.63Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±12.2

3258MADAWGS

Season APEX 74.7Event APEX 43.15Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -4.45Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1885Comet Robotics

Season APEX 49.3Event APEX 46.33Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5830, 11443, 10370

/ 100 compat

Projected

91.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5830, 11443, 10370

Auto

20.4 21%

Teleop

54.2 56%

Endgame

21.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3258, 6802, 1885

/ 100 compat

Projected

85 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 3258, 6802, 1885

Auto

26.0 31%

Teleop

44.9 53%

Endgame

14.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score91.4pts

Blue projected score85pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample152alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.3
Score range: 48–128
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 99 vs event baseline 204.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.1Season APEX151.6

20.4Auto26

54.2Teleop44.9

21.9Endgame14.1

75Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	18
teleop	21	28
endgame	14	0
foul	0	0
total	53	46

Result

Final score

53 – 46

Prediction correct · off by 38.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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